Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsLatin America3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.2%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 4, 26, 11:56 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if credible evidence emerges by December 31, 2026 that Maduro's removal from power on January 3, 2026 was orchestrated as an internal coup with direct US military assistance, rather than a unilateral US military operation.
- Resolution requires documented evidence that Venezuelan military or government officials coordinated with the US to remove Maduro, or that the operation was planned and executed jointly with internal Venezuelan actors.
- Resolution sources may include: declassified government documents, congressional testimony, investigative journalism from major outlets, memoirs or statements from key Venezuelan or US officials, or court filings.
- The market creator will determine resolution based on the preponderance of available evidence.
- The question hinges on distinguishing between a unilateral US military operation and a coordinated internal coup.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance? resolve?
- Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria