Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 88.2%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 4, 23, 8:53 PM UTCMay 2, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
The resolves "YES" if by the market close date, there is a publically-downloadable full formal proof of the modularity theorem (formerly known as the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture) in a theorem-proving language such as Coq, Lean, or Isabelle.
Open markets
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+2 more outcomes
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+3 more outcomes
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+1 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01? resolve?
- Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01? is scheduled to resolve on May 2, 2029.
- How is Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The resolves "YES" if by the market close date, there is a publically-downloadable full formal proof of the modularity theorem (formerly known as the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture) in a theorem-proving language such as Coq, Lean, or Isabelle.