Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2030 or later 43.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 26, 24, 9:08 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
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PolymarketRules
The Stacks Project is an extensive open-source textbook and reference work focused on algebraic geometry and related fields.
- Each lemma, theorem, definition, remark, example, and other significant items within the project is assigned a unique tag, with the current scope of the project including more than 21000 tags.
- This question resolves to the first year in which at least 11000 tags of the stacks project have been formalized in a proof assistant such as Lean, Coq, Isabelle, etc. It resolves to the last option (the named outcome) if no such milestone has been reached by the end of 2029.
- Further information on resolution criteria:
- I consider it to be almost certain that a formalization as above will require a concerted project which includes a mechanism to track the progress on the number of formalized tags.
- If such a project is created, this would be used to determine the year of resolution above.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
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- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
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- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized??
- Manifold Markets prices 2030 or later at 44% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? resolve?
- When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Stacks Project is an extensive open-source textbook and reference work focused on algebraic geometry and related fields.