Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 31, 22, 7:26 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be the next elementary particle discovered?
Manifold MarketsDid humanity discover life on K2-18b?
Manifold MarketsWill we be able to create or discover something that surpasses the speed of light by 2051?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
I will resolve YES if a ≥5 sigma result is found (or composite of multiple results, etc), and otherwise resolve NO at close
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+5.3pt55%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $263.3K
- 24h Vol
- $145.6K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $31.5K
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030+17.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-10.0pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050? resolve?
- Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2050.
- How is Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I will resolve YES if a ≥5 sigma result is found (or composite of multiple results, etc), and otherwise resolve NO at close