Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 22%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.7 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 14, 23, 4:24 PM UTCJan 1, 51, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be the next particle discovered outside the Standard Model (2022)?
Manifold MarketsWhich hypothetical elementary particles will be discovered by 2060?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
What will be the next elementary particle discovered? To count as a discovery, it must be accepted to exist by the physics community.
- Note: For this market, I am defining a WIMP as any fermion with mass that interacts via the weak force but not the strong or electromagnetic forces, isn't a neutrino, and isn't the superpartner of some already known particle.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+5.3pt55%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $263.3K
- 24h Vol
- $145.6K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $31.5K
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030+17.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-10.0pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the next elementary particle discovered??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 22% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will be the next elementary particle discovered? resolve?
- What will be the next elementary particle discovered? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2051.
- How is What will be the next elementary particle discovered? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: What will be the next elementary particle discovered? To count as a discovery, it must be accepted to exist by the physics community.