What are the current odds for Will we achieve AGI before Democrats win their next trifecta??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63.9% as of October 22, 2026.

Will we achieve AGI before Democrats win their next trifecta?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 63.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Sep 14, 24, 10:09 PM UTCSep 22, 33, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Based on an aside from this post that mentioned the possibility of this happening: https://www.secondbest.ca/p/before-the-flood

This market resolves YES if an AGI exists, according to the market linked below, before the next Democratic governing trifecta begins.
@/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
I will defer to that market's judgement for all questions about whether a certain system is an AGI or not.
For this market, a Democratic governing trifecta means any period of time in which the Democratic caucus holds the majority in the U.S. House and Senate, and there is a Democratic president, unless the president is a lame duck president.
In other words, it doesn't count the brief time between the new Congress and the new president being sworn in if the incoming Congress and outgoing president are Democratic but the new president is not.