Will Washington Initiative IL26-638 (girls' sports eligibility by sex) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionSportsSociety & Culture23dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 53%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 13 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 6:53 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
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This market resolves YES if Washington Initiative IL26-638 (Initiative Measure No. IL26-638 concerns participation in athletics at K-12 schools.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:
- Majority of votes cast on the measure, provided votes on it equal ≥1/3 of all votes cast at the election (Wash.
- II §1(d)); effective 30th day after election (2026-12-03).
- Votes cast on the measure must equal at least one-third of total votes cast at the election (Wash.
- Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not.
- YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.
