Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 80.3%
Forecasters
144
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleDec 13, 25, 3:14 PM UTCJan 12, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
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Manifold MarketsAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketCPI in September
KalshiInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2026 (Dec 2026 price level compared to Dec 2025).
- The resolution will be based on the 12-month headline CPI inflation rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm.
- Goes by the headline figure, typically rounded to 1 decimal.
- I will use most suitable replacement if BLS stops publishing this statistic or if it is widely treated as unreliable measure of inflation.
- I will bet in this market.
- If we hit ambiguity around reliability will agree with a group of representative YES and NO holders.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+3.0pt86.1%
- No-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $70.7K
- 24h Vol
- $25.1K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $216K
- 24h Vol
- $7.7K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)+2.0pt60.2%
- 3 (75 bps)-0.7pt23.3%
- 1 (25 bps)-1.0pt15.5%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETSeptember Inflation US - Annual
- 3.6%-1.0pt39.6%
- 3.7%+1.0pt25.2%
- 3.5%+1.0pt18.9%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%99%
- Above 2.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.3%+2.0pt86%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.3K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026? resolve?
- Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 12, 2027.
- How is Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2026 (Dec 2026 price level compared to Dec 2025).