Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88.3%
Forecasters
149
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 13, 25, 3:14 PM UTCJan 12, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketOctober Inflation US - Annual
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2026 (Dec 2026 price level compared to Dec 2025).
- The resolution will be based on the 12-month headline CPI inflation rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm.
- Goes by the headline figure, typically rounded to 1 decimal.
- I will use most suitable replacement if BLS stops publishing this statistic or if it is widely treated as unreliable measure of inflation.
- I will bet in this market.
- If we hit ambiguity around reliability will agree with a group of representative YES and NO holders.
