Current community forecast
No 67%
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJul 20, 25, 10:21 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:10 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketWill Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsHow many seats will the UK Labour Party win at the next general election?
Manifold MarketsHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Labour Party vote percent
KalshiNZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
PolymarketRules
On the 11th if July Unite the Union announced it will "re-examine relationship with labour" citing the parties lack of solidarity with workers and disabled people and even suspending Angela Rayner for backing the council of the Birmingham bin works dispute.
- With this "re-examination" underway will the union decide to disaffiliate
- Unite is the largest union in the UK.
- Unite if one of Labours largest donors.
- The Labour party was born out of the trad union movement in the late 19th century.
- Notes in resolution:
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Unite the Union disaffiliate from the Labour Party??
- Manifold Markets prices NO at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Unite the Union disaffiliate from the Labour Party? resolve?
- Will Unite the Union disaffiliate from the Labour Party? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Unite the Union disaffiliate from the Labour Party? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: On the 11th if July Unite the Union announced it will "re-examine relationship with labour" citing the parties lack of solidarity with workers and disabled people and even suspending Angela Rayner for backing the council of the Birmingham bin works dispute.