Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?
Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionEuropePoliticsCorporate ActionsManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (94%)
Resolved: Aug 15, 2026, 6:07 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 94%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleJan 17, 26, 5:34 PMAug 15, 26, 6:07 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes6%
No94%
94%
6%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Resolves YES if at least one of the tariffs at least as large as stated in this Truth Social post are implemented at the latest by the times detailed in this post on at least one European country for the explicit purposes of acquiring Greenland
- https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115911344443637897
- Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if the US implements at least 10% tariffs on at least one European country beginning February 1, 2026, or at least 25% tariffs on at least one European country beginning June 1, 2026, explicitly for the purpose of acquiring Greenland.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Trump administration and verified through official trade policy sources such as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (https://ustr.gov/) or the U.S. Department of Commerce (https://www.commerce.gov/).
- The market resolves NO if no such tariffs are implemented by June 1, 2026, or if any implemented tariffs are not explicitly tied to Greenland acquisition.
