Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.3%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 4:52 AM UTCApr 30, 27, 4:51 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsEffective Altruism stock [permanent]
Manifold MarketsWhat will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?
KalshiWhat will Trump say in September?
KalshiWhat will Trump say this week? (September 14 - September 20)
PolymarketWhat nicknames will Trump say before October?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-10.0pt52.4%
- 25 bps increase+11.0pt45.6%
- 25 bps decrease-1.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.8M
- 24h Vol
- $3.1M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.3pt93%
- Yes+2.3pt7%
- Total Vol
- $21.5M
- 24h Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Total Vol
- $31.7M
- 24h Vol
- $567.3K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Before Jan 1, 2027-8.0pt40.8%
- Before Dec 1, 202632.5%
- Before Nov 1, 202614.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $531.4K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+4.0pt56.4%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt30.7%
- Republicans sweep-2.0pt11.9%
+1 more outcomes
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Maine Senate winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will trump say or write "effective altruism"??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 65% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? resolve?
- Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? is scheduled to resolve on April 30, 2027.