![Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FLessWrong%2FyQCP0ECntC.jpg&w=128&q=80)
Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffSociety & Culture4mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 70%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 25, 1:18 AM UTCFeb 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post [Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rationality meet at a Secular Solstice afterparty is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
Society & CultureKALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.8 million96%
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.9 million89%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
- 24h Vol
- $6.8K
KALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 70 million pounds66%
- Above 75 million pounds44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11K
- 24h Vol
- $3K
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No+3.5pt77.2%
- Yes-3.5pt22.8%
- Total Vol
- $22.9K
- 24h Vol
- $766.7
POLYMARKETIs Earth flat?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Total Vol
- $57.9K
- 24h Vol
- $651.1
FORECASTEXWill University of Michigan rank first for public universities in 2027?
- No94%
- Yes6%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Harvard tuition exceed $61,000 in 2026?
- Yes98%
- No2%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- League City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?
- MrBeast: 1 Billion subscribers
- Hermès Kelly: Highest auction sale price this year
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Will Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
- How is Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.