Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleMay 17, 26, 7:33 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:32 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Thomas Massie leave Congress before his term ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Thomas Massie say Trump should be impeached before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Thomas Massie leave the GOP by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Thomas Massie win the Kentucky 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExWill Ed Gallrein underperform Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Ed Gallrein win the Kentucky 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolves yes if Thomas Massie officially endorses Ed Gallrein.
- This must be supportive of his candidacy.
- Congratulating a primary victory doesn’t count.
- Resolves no if no endorsement by Novembers election day.
- Or resolves early to no if Massie wins the primary.
