Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.8%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 20, 26, 4:51 AM UTCNov 20, 26, 4:50 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Thomas Massie endorse Ed Gallrein?
Manifold MarketsWill Ed Gallrein win the Kentucky 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRules
In 2024, Donald Trump recieved 66.91% in Kentuckys 4th Congressional district.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kentucky#District_4
- Resolves yes if Ed gallrein recieves 66.90% or less.
- Resolves no if Ed Gallrein recieves 66.91% or more.
Open markets
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
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+4 more outcomes
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- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ed Gallrein underperform Trump??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Ed Gallrein underperform Trump? resolve?
- Will Ed Gallrein underperform Trump? is scheduled to resolve on November 20, 2026.
- How is Will Ed Gallrein underperform Trump? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In 2024, Donald Trump recieved 66.91% in Kentuckys 4th Congressional district.