Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.8%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMay 20, 26, 4:51 AM UTCNov 20, 26, 4:50 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Thomas Massie endorse Ed Gallrein?
Manifold MarketsWill Ed Gallrein win the Kentucky 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExKY-04 House election: Ed Gallrein vote percent
KalshiPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRules
In 2024, Donald Trump recieved 66.91% in Kentuckys 4th Congressional district.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kentucky#District_4
- Resolves yes if Ed gallrein recieves 66.90% or less.
- Resolves no if Ed Gallrein recieves 66.91% or more.