Will the Washington state assault weapons ban be struck down?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsCrime & Justice3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 92%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 39 minutes ago
Apr 21, 23, 7:31 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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GeminiRules
HB 1240 has been delivered to the governor to be signed and will likely be signed into law by the governor soon.
- Throughout the legislative process, many legislators have insisted that it is a waste of time because it is clearly unconstitutional.
- Will the courts agree with these legislators?
- Market will resolve yes if the court rules the law unconstitutional.
- If only part of the bill is ruled unconstitutional, but enough of the law remains that an AR-15 is not legally purchasable within Washington, I will not consider the law to have been struck down.
- This market will resolve No if either no challenge is brought to the law by the end of this year or if after all appeals are exhausted (either after a Supreme Court decision has been made, the Supreme Court decides not to hear the case, or if the decision by a lower court is not appealed to the Supreme Court) enough of the law remains in place that an AR-15 is not legally purchasable within Washington.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Washington state assault weapons ban be struck down??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Washington state assault weapons ban be struck down? resolve?
- Will the Washington state assault weapons ban be struck down? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the Washington state assault weapons ban be struck down? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: HB 1240 has been delivered to the governor to be signed and will likely be signed into law by the governor soon.