In which year before 2031 will it be legal to purchase an assault weapon in Washington State?
One-OffUS PoliticsCrime & Justice4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNot before 2031 44.8%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJul 15, 23, 5:39 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
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This question resolves to the year in which it becomes legal for a non-felon to purchase and then posess >90% of the firearms specifically listed in Section 2.2.i of WA Substitute House Bill 1240: https://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2023-24/Pdf/Bills/House%20Passed%20Legislature/1240-S.PL.pdf#page=1.
- If purchase/posession is delayed >14 days, this resolves no.
- If purchase/posession requires special licensure, this resolves no.
- If purchase/posession is capped at any number, this resolves no.
- If purchase/posession is not legal by 2030, this resolves "Not before 2030".
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In which year before 2031 will it be legal to purchase an assault weapon in Washington State??
- Manifold Markets prices Not before 2031 at 45% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In which year before 2031 will it be legal to purchase an assault weapon in Washington State? resolve?
- In which year before 2031 will it be legal to purchase an assault weapon in Washington State? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is In which year before 2031 will it be legal to purchase an assault weapon in Washington State? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves to the year in which it becomes legal for a non-felon to purchase and then posess >90% of the firearms specifically listed in Section 2.2.i of WA Substitute House Bill 1240: https://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2023-24/Pdf/Bills/House%20Passed%20Legislature/1240-S.PL.pdf#page=1.