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In which year before 2031 will it be legal to purchase an assault weapon in Washington State?

One-OffUS Politics Crime & Justice4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

2023 0.8%-0.2%

Leader of 9 outcomes

Forecasters

7

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 22 minutes ago

Jul 15, 23, 5:39 PMJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

20231%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This question resolves to the year in which it becomes legal for a non-felon to purchase and then posess >90% of the firearms specifically listed in Section 2.2.i of WA Substitute House Bill 1240: https://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2023-24/Pdf/Bills/House%20Passed%20Legislature/1240-S.PL.pdf#page=1.

If purchase/posession is delayed >14 days, this resolves no.
If purchase/posession requires special licensure, this resolves no.
If purchase/posession is capped at any number, this resolves no.
If purchase/posession is not legal by 2030, this resolves "Not before 2030".

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Rules

This question resolves to the year in which it becomes legal for a non-felon to purchase and then posess >90% of the firearms specifically listed in Section 2.2.i of WA Substitute House Bill 1240: https://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2023-24/Pdf/Bills/House%20Passed%20Legislature/1240-S.PL.pdf#page=1.

If purchase/posession is delayed >14 days, this resolves no.
If purchase/posession requires special licensure, this resolves no.
If purchase/posession is capped at any number, this resolves no.
If purchase/posession is not legal by 2030, this resolves "Not before 2030".