Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 82.1%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 5, 26, 9:35 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?
Manifold MarketsAt the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is formally announced and takes effect by December 31, 2026.
- This includes any agreement that halts active hostilities, whether temporary or permanent, and regardless of whether it involves territorial concessions or security guarantees.
- The market resolves NO if active fighting continues through the end of 2026 without a formal ceasefire or peace agreement taking effect.
- For verification, resolution will be based on official announcements from the Ukrainian government, Russian government, or major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.).
- Russia launched a nearly 4-year-old invasion of Ukraine, with Russia currently occupying 20 percent of Ukraine's territory.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.
- How is Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria