Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 84.2%Leader of 4 outcomes
No 84.2%Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 5, 26, 9:35 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is formally announced and takes effect by December 31, 2026.
- This includes any agreement that halts active hostilities, whether temporary or permanent, and regardless of whether it involves territorial concessions or security guarantees.
- The market resolves NO if active fighting continues through the end of 2026 without a formal ceasefire or peace agreement taking effect.
- For verification, resolution will be based on official announcements from the Ukrainian government, Russian government, or major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.).
- Russia launched a nearly 4-year-old invasion of Ukraine, with Russia currently occupying 20 percent of Ukraine's territory.