What are the current odds for Will the USA have a national Carbon Tax by the end of 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 74.3% as of October 27, 2026.

Will the USA have a national Carbon Tax by the end of 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 74.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Sep 14, 23, 10:07 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 6:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

If the United States has a federal system for broadly levying taxes or fees on domestic carbon emissions by 2030, this market will resolve YES.

A Cap & Trade system would likely not meet these requirements and so would resolve NO.
This market will resolve YES if at any point a carbon tax is enforced, even if it is repealed or legally overturned later.