Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models

AIOne-OffRegulation China1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production 70.9%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 minutes ago

Jul 8, 26, 2:43 PMDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production71%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.

If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.

Volume trend

$66

Jul 85d of dataJul 22

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Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models

AIOne-OffRegulation China1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production 70.9%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 minutes ago

Jul 8, 26, 2:43 PMDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production71%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.

If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.

Volume trend

$66

Jul 85d of dataJul 22

Related Markets

Will the US restrict access to Kimi in 2026?

$109.4

Yes: 26%

KALSHI

鹅腿阿姨卖鸭腿事件:市监部门最终会做出哪种处理?(2026/8/31前) / "Goose-leg Auntie" duck-leg case: final penalty?

$176.7

A. 截止日前无任何官方处理结论(仍在调查/不了了之): 3.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS