Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastBan use of open Chinese models by government applications in production 70.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 26, 2:43 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.
- If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
- I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
- I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
- For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
- company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.
