Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBan use of open Chinese models by government applications in production 70.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 26, 2:43 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.
- If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
- I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
- I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
- For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
- company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models?
- Manifold Markets prices Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models resolve?
- Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.