Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?
AIOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85.3%
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9
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 14 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 10:09 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
prinz (@deredleritt3r) on X
- [link preview]Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM UTC, an open-weights AI model (or an agentic system powered strictly by open-weights models) successfully generates a verified mathematical solution or formalized proof resolving a major open aspect of the Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem, under the following conditions:
- Open Models: The model(s) used must be open-weights, meaning the model weights are publicly downloadable (e.g., hosted on Hugging Face under an open or open-source license) at the time of the breakthrough.
- Compute Cost: The total compute cost required to execute the generation/search/inference run of the proof must be under $1,000 USD.
- This cost is calculated based on commercial API rates or equivalent cloud GPU rental prices (e.g., RunPod, Vast.ai, AWS) at the time of the run.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 85% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute? resolve?
- Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: prinz (@deredleritt3r) on X