Current community forecast
No 79.6%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 31, 26, 5:28 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if, as displayed on December 31, 2027, the highest-ranked US-developed open-weights model on the LMArena text leaderboard (default "Overall" text view, lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is ranked above every China-developed open-weights model.
- Resolves NO otherwise (including if no US open-weights model is listed).
- - Open-weights model: weights publicly downloadable to self-host.
- API-only/proprietary models do not count. - US-developed labs include Google (Gemma), OpenAI (gpt-oss), Meta (Llama), NVIDIA (Nemotron), Microsoft (Phi), AI2 (OLMo), and any other US-headquartered org. - China-developed labs include DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), Zhipu (GLM), and any other China-headquartered org. - Comparison is by leaderboard position among open-weights models only; only the standing on the resolution date counts (briefly leading earlier does not). - Source: LMArena text leaderboard.
- If it is discontinued or materially changes format, this resolves via the closest equivalent public, community-vote-based general-purpose LLM leaderboard, at the creator's reasonable discretion.
