Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.2%
Forecasters
130
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 23, 3:06 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
There needs to be direct armed conflict, so stuff like cold war or proxy wars in general don't count.
- US providing weapons to Ukraine (or any other country) but not operating them through its military also doesn't count.
- In case of doubt, I'll ask random people within my social circle (not Russians, Americans and not Manifold users) whether the US is at war with Russia.
