Will the total number of registered Democrats in the US be lower in the 2026 election than in the 2024 election?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 51.6%

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Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Stale

Nov 8, 24, 6:16 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 7:59 AM UTC

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Outcome24hChance

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I'm using this metric to evaluate a prediction from Andrew Yang: Abandon Policing Cultural Behaviors | Blog | Andrew Yang

"In many ways, these all boil down to one thing: The Democratic Party should act more democratically.
But they will do none of these things.
Instead, they will begin jockeying for position within the party to run in 2028.
That is why more and more voters will look for options, like the Forward Party, or declare themselves independents as Trump returns to power.
Institutions incapable of reform get replaced."

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