Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.7%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleFeb 4, 25, 8:45 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
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Polymarket[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRules
Some people on the right have made noise about restricting the NWS from providing weather forecasts in the past, and with Trump back in office, they may try to do so again.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the National Weather Service stops providing weather forecasts to the U.S. public before January 1, 2027.
- Specifically, this will resolve YES if the NWS does not provide forecasts, or provides forecasts limited to the following 72 hours or less, to areas of the U.S. representing a majority of Americans, for a period of at least one week.
- This includes both their website (weather.gov) and official forecast products.
- The market will resolve NO if NOAA continues to provide weather forecasts through 2026.
- Temporary interruptions in service due to technical issues or government shutdowns will not count as stopping forecasts.
