Current community forecast
Yes 94.6%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleOct 15, 23, 5:13 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 6:00 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
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- Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run.