Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75.4%
Forecasters
56
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 10, 23, 5:11 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
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PolymarketHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRules
This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
- Reaching the 60% threshold at any point and for any length of time is sufficient.
- If numerical data is not available, Metaculus will use their discretion to determine if the plotted line for either hemisphere has touched or surpassed the 60% grid line.
- The question will resolve as No if the criteria have not been met according to the information shown on the chart on January 1, 2029, regardless of any data lag.
- In the event ECMWF stops publishing this data Metaculus may select an approximately equivalent source or resolve the question as N/A.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes96%
- No4%
- Total Vol
- $125.8K
- 24h Vol
- $125.8K
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029? resolve?
- Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2029.
- How is Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.