Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75.4%
Forecasters
56
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 10, 23, 5:11 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
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PolymarketRules
This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
- Reaching the 60% threshold at any point and for any length of time is sufficient.
- If numerical data is not available, Metaculus will use their discretion to determine if the plotted line for either hemisphere has touched or surpassed the 60% grid line.
- The question will resolve as No if the criteria have not been met according to the information shown on the chart on January 1, 2029, regardless of any data lag.
- In the event ECMWF stops publishing this data Metaculus may select an approximately equivalent source or resolve the question as N/A.