Will the number of U.S. Supreme Court Justices confirmed between June 15, 2026 and January 20, 2029 be at least one?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.9%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJun 15, 26, 2:09 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, between June 15, 2026, and January 20, 2029 (inclusive), the United States Senate votes to confirm at least one nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Date Range: The official Senate confirmation vote must take place on or after June 15, 2026, and on or before 11:59:59 AM ET on January 20, 2029.
- Definition of Confirmation: A nominee is considered "confirmed" when the U.S. Senate passes a vote to advise and consent to the nomination.
- Actual swearing-in, taking the judicial oath, or officially assuming office is not required for a "YES" resolution, provided the Senate confirmation vote is successful within the specified timeframe.
