Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics Election2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 77.2%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Feb 2, 24, 3:07 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Resolves to "Yes" if the person elected in Nov. 2024 is serving as U.S. President on the day of the next inauguration (20 Jan. 2029).

Report a data issue with this market

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics Election2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 77.2%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Feb 2, 24, 3:07 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Manifold Markets

Trump to serve his full term?

Futuur

Will the next elected President of the USA serve the full term?

Manifold Markets

Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?

Kalshi

Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison?

Manifold Markets

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket

Rules

Resolves to "Yes" if the person elected in Nov. 2024 is serving as U.S. President on the day of the next inauguration (20 Jan. 2029).

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term? resolve?: Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term? is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
How is Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to "Yes" if the person elected in Nov. 2024 is serving as U.S. President on the day of the next inauguration (20 Jan. 2029).

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

Frequently asked questions

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