Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin AmericaEurope4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jan 17, 26, 12:52 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- As of January 3, 2026, Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces and Vice-president Delcy Rodríguez was installed as acting president, leaving the timing of the next presidential election unclear.
- This market resolves YES if the next presidential election held in Venezuela meets international standards for free and fair elections.
- Resolution will be based on assessments from credible international election observation missions, including the Carter Center, UN Panel of Electoral Experts, and other recognized international observers.
- Key criteria include: transparent vote counting with disaggregated results published by polling station, absence of systematic fraud or irregularities, freedom of candidate registration and campaign activities, absence of widespread voter intimidation or repression, and media access for all candidates.
- Resolution will reference reports from these organizations and statements from major international bodies (EU, OAS, U.S. State Department, etc.).
