Current community forecast
Yes 96.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 1, 26, 8:58 PM UTCAug 15, 29, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the next UK General Election take place?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the next Ukrainan presidential election take place?
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PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The next UK general election is scheduled no later than 15 August 2029, as Parliament first met on 9 July 2024 and will automatically dissolve five years later unless dissolved earlier.
- This market resolves YES if a general election takes place before 15 August 2029, and NO if the election is held on or after that date.
- Resolution will be determined by the official announcement of polling day by the UK Electoral Commission at https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/.
- Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, the Prime Minister has the power to request the monarch call an election at any time during the five-year length of a parliamentary session, or Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met with an election held 25 working days after dissolution.
- The 2024 general election resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next British Genaral election take place before the regular deadline in 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the next British Genaral election take place before the regular deadline in 2029? resolve?
- Will the next British Genaral election take place before the regular deadline in 2029? is scheduled to resolve on August 15, 2029.
- How is Will the next British Genaral election take place before the regular deadline in 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria