Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 96.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 1, 26, 8:58 PM UTCAug 15, 29, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the next UK General Election take place?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next UK General Election take place?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the next Ukrainan presidential election take place?
Manifold MarketsWill the 🇺🇸 2028 Presidential Election take place as scheduled?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
PolymarketWill an F1 Grand Prix race take place in Abu Dhabi before December 7, 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The next UK general election is scheduled no later than 15 August 2029, as Parliament first met on 9 July 2024 and will automatically dissolve five years later unless dissolved earlier.
- This market resolves YES if a general election takes place before 15 August 2029, and NO if the election is held on or after that date.
- Resolution will be determined by the official announcement of polling day by the UK Electoral Commission at https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/.
- Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, the Prime Minister has the power to request the monarch call an election at any time during the five-year length of a parliamentary session, or Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met with an election held 25 working days after dissolution.
- The 2024 general election resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer.