Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.1%
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Updated 21 minutes ago
Sep 5, 24, 7:19 PM UTCNov 13, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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The NYT recently put out an editorial with the dramatic title Harris or Trump? The Prophet of Presidential Elections Is Ready to Call the Race.
- It’s about a guy named Allan Lichtman who uses a silly overfit model to predict elections.
- Here’s Nate Silver’s takedown (from 2011!), and here’s a Manifold market on whether he’ll be “right” this year.
- (He thought Biden would win up until the bitter end, btw, but he thinks Harris has the advantage in the Keys now, and she may win or lose, of course.)
- In a perfect world, Lichtman wouldn’t get airtime, but alas, the NYT is covering him.
- (I haven’t checked whether they did in past years - this would be a good forecasting step.) Will they similarly positively cover the Keys in 2028?
