Will the Jones Act be repealed or significantly eased by the end of the next presidency?
One-OffUS PoliticsRegulationTrade Policy2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58.7%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Sep 27, 24, 8:37 PM UTCJan 22, 29, 6:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
The Jones Act requires that cabotage within the US happen on US-built and US-flagged vessels.
- Will it be repealed or significantly loosened with respect to this provision by 2028-01-21?
- At a minimum, this requires a process by which a non-US-built vessel could transport goods directly between US ports.
- I will not trade on this question until there has been time to clarify resolution criteria.
- Update 2026-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A waiver alone is not sufficient for YES resolution, as the question requires a change to the law itself.
- However, a broad 'temporary' waiver that never ends could qualify as a functional repeal even if the law remains on the books.
