Will the Jones Act be repealed or significantly eased by the end of the next presidency?
One-OffUS PoliticsRegulationTrade Policy2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 58.7%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 27, 24, 8:37 PM UTCJan 22, 29, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Jones Act be repealed?
KalshiWill the Jones Act be repealed before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Jones Act be loosened if and only if Trump wins the presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill the Affordable Care Act get repealed before January 20th, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the Jones Act be amended or repealed to ease restrictions on cabotage within the US by 2032?
Manifold MarketsJones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?
PolymarketRules
The Jones Act requires that cabotage within the US happen on US-built and US-flagged vessels.
- Will it be repealed or significantly loosened with respect to this provision by 2028-01-21?
- At a minimum, this requires a process by which a non-US-built vessel could transport goods directly between US ports.
- I will not trade on this question until there has been time to clarify resolution criteria.
- Update 2026-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A waiver alone is not sufficient for YES resolution, as the question requires a change to the law itself.
- However, a broad 'temporary' waiver that never ends could qualify as a functional repeal even if the law remains on the books.