Will the IDF fight against Abu Shabab (a Palestinian militia they supplied with weapons) by the end of 2026?
One-OffMiddle EastGeopolitics6moManifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastYes 18.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleJun 5, 25, 10:46 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes18%
Related Markets
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
$244.7KDecember 31: 44%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$237.3KYes: 0%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
$197.4KAugust 31: 94%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
$5.3KYes: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIsraeli Parliament dissolved by…?
$680June 15 11.59pm ET: 2.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Iranian regime be overthrown?
$471.9Yes: 7.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Hormuz vessel attack lifts oil as Polymarket puts July 15 normalcy at 29.5%Blockchain.News
Hormuz strike jolts Iran-entry market as Polymarket cuts Trump odds to 15%Blockchain.NewsHormuz ship hit lifts risk as Polymarket normal-traffic odds jump to 55%Blockchain.News
Inspection dispute cools US-Iran deal odds to 22.5% on PolymarketBlockchain.News
Ras Laffan blast spotlights Gulf shipping as Polymarket puts 20+ Hormuz at 99%Blockchain.News
Iran closes Hormuz again as talks restart, Polymarket Yes dips to 39.5%Blockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.