Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (87.9%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 9:58 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 2, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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Manifold MarketsRules
Article 73 of the EU AI Act (serious incident reporting) became applicable on 2 August 2026, but the Commission's dedicated guidance for it is still the DRAFT published for consultation on 26 September 2025 (consultation closed 7 November 2025).
- This market asks whether the final version lands by 1 October 2026.
- RESOLVES YES if, on or before 2026-10-01 23:59 Brussels time, an official EU source publishes a document presenting Article 73 guidance and/or the Article 73 serious-incident reporting template as final, adopted, or otherwise non-draft.
- Qualifying sources (any one is sufficient): - digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu - the AI Act Service Desk / AI Office pages on an official europa.eu domain - the Official Journal of the European Union - an official European Commission press release or daily news item RESOLVES NO otherwise, including if only a draft, a revised draft, or a further consultation appears.
- Explicitly does NOT count: - The September 2025 draft guidance or draft template, unless an official EU source later presents that same document as final or adopted. - The Article 50 transparency guidelines (final version published late July 2026) — different article. - Article 55 / GPAI Code of Practice materials, the GPAI guidelines, or any incident-reporting text that is only a section inside a broader document not presented as the Article 73 guidance. - Trade-press or law-firm articles describing something as "final." Resolution requires the official EU source itself.
- (This exclusion is deliberate: an Article 50 write-up was already mistaken for Article 73 by at least one trader in the predecessor market.) Resolution will be determined by the state of the official sources above at the deadline, not by my judgment of what the Commission intended.