Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.4%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleAug 2, 26, 5:22 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the European Union agrees and signs a major new treaty before January 1st 2035.
- A “major treaty” must amend, replace, or substantially supplement the EU’s primary constitutional framework, with changes comparable in significance to the Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice, or Lisbon Treaties.
- Qualifying changes may include substantial reforms to EU institutions, decision-making or voting rules, the division of powers between the EU and member states, fiscal integration, defence policy, enlargement procedures, or membership and withdrawal rules.
- The treaty must have a finalized text and be formally signed by representatives of all EU member states before the deadline.
- It does not need to have entered into force or completed national ratification by that date.
- The following do not qualify on their own: accession or withdrawal treaties, trade agreements, ordinary legislative acts, non-binding declarations, limited technical amendments, treaties involving only a subset of EU member states, or agreements that do not materially alter the EU’s primary legal framework.
