Will there be an AI treaty between US and China by end of 2032?
Trade PolicyOne-OffAIGeopoliticsChina6y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55.2%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleSep 24, 26, 10:59 PM UTCDec 31, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The market will resolve to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2032 (11:59 PM UTC), the United States and the People's Republic of China formally sign a bilateral or multilateral treaty, executive agreement, or binding international accord that includes provisions regulating the development or deployment of frontier AI.
- "Frontier AI" means the most capable general-purpose AI models at the time of signing, and the systems used to develop them.
- Qualifying provisions include, for example: limits or thresholds on model training or capabilities; safety testing, evaluation, or incident-reporting requirements; restrictions on dangerous capabilities such as biological, chemical, or cyber weapons uplift; and inspection or verification regimes for frontier model development (including verification that relies on tracking computing hardware).
- An agreement counts only if it contains at least one provision that directly regulates the development or deployment of frontier AI.
- Agreements covering only related matters do not count, including: export controls, tariffs, or trade terms on semiconductors, chipmaking equipment, or other AI hardware; investment restrictions; data privacy or cross-border data rules; intellectual property; and rules for narrow or application-specific AI (e.g. facial recognition, autonomous vehicles).
- A broader agreement that includes such matters alongside at least one qualifying frontier AI provision does count.
