Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 87.7%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 23, 2:16 PM UTCDec 1, 52, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves Yes if any of the following happen without a woman having first been elected president:
- A person who identifies as non-binary is elected president
- A presidential election is delayed beyond the end of an election year
- The US is dissolved
- The US switches to a parliamentary or other system without a president
- Something happens after the 2048 elections, but before 2052 after the question has resolved which might otherwise count as "a woman being elected president before 2052" but the question has resolved already (note therefore the expiration date of this question is the 2052 elections)
