Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleNov 21, 24, 2:54 AM UTCJan 4, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Sarah McBride win the Delaware at-large District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExDE-AL House election: Sarah McBride vote percent
Kalshi120th Congress: Who will run for Senate Democratic leader?
KalshiWill Chuck Schumer remain the Democratic Leader through the 119th Congress?
PredictItWill there be any Congressional Special Election flips in the 119th Congress?
Manifold Markets120th Congress: Who will run for Senate Republican leader?
KalshiRules
The 119th congress is not yet in session - but Speaker Mike Johnson (and a number of other House republicans) have started specifically targetting Sarah McBride, the first transgender person to serve in congress, with a number of proposed bills and house rules.
- Will they decide to censure her for some reason? Resolves YES if the House successfully votes to do so.
