Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.4%
Forecasters
769
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Dec 8, 22, 6:07 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.
