Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 4:30 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump flee to Russia?
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Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine target Moscow on?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Putin leaves Russia, under circumstances that can reasonably be considered 'fleeing' (not a normal diplomatic visit, ongoing power struggle, alternate leader in place in Moscow etc)
- Otherwise resolves NO
- Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there are multiple Putin impersonators or body doubles, the market will resolve based on the real Putin's actions, not those of any impersonators.
