Will Pope Leo criticize JD Vance by name before the 2028 election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.5%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleFeb 23, 26, 8:02 AM UTCNov 6, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Pope Leo XIV publicly criticizes JD Vance by name before the 2028 election.
- Resolution requires a direct, named reference to Vance in a papal statement, homily, letter, or official Vatican communication.
- The criticism must occur before November 5, 2028.
- Resolution sources include official Vatican statements at https://www.vatican.va, papal homilies, and major news outlets reporting on papal statements.
- Pope Leo XIV (born Robert Francis Prevost) is the first pope to have been born in the United States, elected in May 2025.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Pope Leo criticize JD Vance by name before the 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Pope Leo criticize JD Vance by name before the 2028 election? resolve?
- Will Pope Leo criticize JD Vance by name before the 2028 election? is scheduled to resolve on November 6, 2028.
- How is Will Pope Leo criticize JD Vance by name before the 2028 election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria