Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 71%
Forecasters
58
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 7, 22, 4:39 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
They must be able to get married in that state, not just have their marriage recognized from elsewhere.
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase-1.0pt49.5%
- No change-1.0pt48.5%
- 25 bps decrease-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.3M
- 24h Vol
- $2.3M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.3pt16%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party11.9%
- Total Vol
- $31.9M
- 24h Vol
- $552.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+4.0pt58%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt31%
- Republicans sweep-4.0pt10%
+1 more outcomes
KALSHIWho will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Scott Jennings+5.0pt22%
- Anna Kelly-3.0pt16.5%
- Danielle Alvarez7.3%
+43 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.5M
KALSHIFlorida Governor winner?
- Byron Donalds-1.0pt80%
- David Jolly20%
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.2K
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Alaska Senate winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035? resolve?
- Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: They must be able to get married in that state, not just have their marriage recognized from elsewhere.