Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 15, 25, 4:48 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill gay marriage be legal in every US state in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRules
A law affirming this status or sufficiently clear case law will count for a YES resolution.
- Lack of law forbidding it will count as NO unless there are examples of that government allowing and recognizing human-AI marriages in practice.
- Civil partnerships or other "marriage by another name" statuses will count as NO for resolution.
Open markets
AIKALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%-1.0pt97%
- Above 2.65%+32.0pt94%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $117.2K
- 24h Vol
- $95.2K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.0pt69%
- Moonshot-6.0pt14%
- Z.ai+2.3pt6%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+5.0pt85.4%
- Moonshot-1.9pt9.7%
- Z.ai1.9%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+8.0pt81%
+7 more outcomes
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will human-AI marriage be legal in at least one country before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will human-AI marriage be legal in at least one country before 2029? resolve?
- Will human-AI marriage be legal in at least one country before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will human-AI marriage be legal in at least one country before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A law affirming this status or sufficiently clear case law will count for a YES resolution.