Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.1%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Mar 10, 26, 7:42 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- Pete Hegseth is currently the Secretary War, having been sworn in on January 25, 2025, as the 29th Secretary of Defense before the department's name was changed on September 5, 2025.
- This market resolves YES if Hegseth holds the position of Secretary of War on December 31, 2026, and NO if he does not.
- Resolution will be determined by checking the official U.S. Department of War website (https://www.war.gov/About/Secretary-of-War/) or official government announcements regarding the Secretary of War's identity on that date.
- The Secretary of War is the head of the United States Department of Defense and is a high-ranking member of the cabinet of the United States.
- In September 2025, President Donald Trump authorized "secretary of war" as a secondary title for use by the secretary of defense.