Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 80%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 25, 10:59 PM UTCDec 18, 26, 10:49 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
KalshiWill anyone be criminally charged based on evidence from the Epstein files in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat does pizza refer to in Epstein files (in addition to actual pizza food)?
Manifold MarketsIs "jerky" a reference to human meat in Epstein files?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump release more Epstein files in Sep 2026?
KalshiJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Market Resolution Criteria
- • Yes (Useless): No new Epstein-related federal prosecutions initiated by end date Dec. 31 2026 11:59pm with public statements from DOJ attributing failure to redactions.
- • No (Useful): At least one indictment or guilty plea directly enabled by file contents, confirmed via court dockets.
- This is my first prediction question.
- I will monitor comments for links or input that points toward resolution, above and beyond my own observations.
- Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has decided to keep the market open and not resolve early.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will over-redaction render the Epstein files useless??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will over-redaction render the Epstein files useless? resolve?
- Will over-redaction render the Epstein files useless? is scheduled to resolve on December 18, 2026.
- How is Will over-redaction render the Epstein files useless? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Market Resolution Criteria