Current community forecast
Yes 78.5%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 26, 11:33 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
The Opportunities Party elected in 2026 New Zealand election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Opportunities Party get a higher party vote percent than any of ACT, NZ First or greens?
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PolymarketRules
2026 New Zealand general election - Wikipedia
- [link preview]currently, that means they’d need to win an electorate or get over 5% of the party vote.
- Win prizes by trading on this market: https://manifold.markets/post/prize-pool-of-5500-mana-for-the-202?r=SmFjazE
- More markets about the NZ election:
- https://manifold.markets/topic/nz-election-26-challenge?r=SmFjazE
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
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+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
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+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election? resolve?
- Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: 2026 New Zealand general election - Wikipedia