Current community forecast
Yes 80%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 17, 25, 5:48 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Opportunities Party get a higher party vote percent than any of ACT, NZ First or greens?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected New Zealand Prime Minister in the next election?
Manifold MarketsNew Zealand Election: 3rd Place
PolymarketNew Zealand Election: Turnout
PolymarketNew Zealand Election: 2nd Place
PolymarketRules
Elected referring to the party crossing the party vote threshold (currently set at 5%) or having a candidate win an electorate.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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- South Carolina Senate winner?
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- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for The Opportunities Party elected in 2026 New Zealand election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does The Opportunities Party elected in 2026 New Zealand election? resolve?
- The Opportunities Party elected in 2026 New Zealand election? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is The Opportunities Party elected in 2026 New Zealand election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Elected referring to the party crossing the party vote threshold (currently set at 5%) or having a candidate win an electorate.