Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.2%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 15, 23, 11:30 PM UTCJan 2, 33, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by which date?
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PolymarketRules
reunified implies all of these: There is a single governing body for the majority of the land controlled by the two regimes in 2023.
- There is no internal border stopping movement and trade.
- There is only one international representative for the new unified country at the UN.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-8.5pt62%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $424.6K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $286K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.8%
- September 3011.9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2032?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2032 resolve?
- Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2032 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2033.
- How is Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2032 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: reunified implies all of these: There is a single governing body for the majority of the land controlled by the two regimes in 2023.