Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?
FedCommoditiesOne-OffBusiness & CorporateMacro & EconomyChina2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 9:37 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 74.4%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.0 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Norsk Hydro. ~2 Mt/yr capacity, mostly hydropower-fed; 2024 near capacity.
- The 2.0 Mt strike for 2028 reflects continued run-rate without new investment.
- Material deviation requires either Slovalco restart or capacity additions.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
