Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
RegulationOne-OffCommoditiesChinaBusiness & Corporate2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.5%
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8
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 0.7 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Century Aluminum. 2024 actual 0.69 Mt; Inola JV (Century-EGA) first metal targeted late 2028 with ~600 kt/yr nameplate.
- The 0.7 Mt strike for 2028 reflects steady-state operations; partial-year Inola contribution could push 2028 above this strike, making the probability anchored at or just above 50%.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Century Aluminum 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000949157
